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(ET Finance Watch) 12 trillion logistics market changes, who do you bet on?

Release time: 2018-12-11

ET Finance Watch


Baima Logistics, which does logistics distribution for SAIC-GM, is a logistics company invested by Chuanhua. SAIC-GM requires accurate timeliness of the feed trucks, sends the location information of the logistics trucks every 5 minutes, and conducts real-time inventory nationwide. in stock.


Baima Logistics, which does logistics distribution for SAIC-GM, is a logistics company invested by Chuanhua. SAIC-GM requires accurate timeliness of the feed trucks, sends the location information of the logistics trucks every 5 minutes, and conducts real-time inventory nationwide. in stock.


Behind these minute-level operations, the era of the supply chain is coming.


Is this just the requirements of the automotive industry at the top of manufacturing for lean manufacturing? "Beyond the Five Rings", a large number of manufacturing companies are still manually dispatching orders and collecting manual information, a large number of mismatched resources and a large number of lags. 80% of social logistics is still scattered.


Butterflies have stopped in the supply chain, flapping their wings.


Half a month ago, at an executive meeting of the State Council hosted by the Prime Minister, private companies were encouraged to participate in the construction and operation of logistics hubs. The meeting clearly proposed that more measures should be taken to develop a "channel + hub + network" modern logistics system to ensure logistics for the entire society. The ratio of total costs to GDP has dropped significantly.


In 2017, the total cost of China's social logistics reached 12.1 trillion, accounting for 14.6% of GDP. Although this value has fallen for five consecutive times, it is still higher than the US and global averages, and is twice that of developed countries.


If it is reduced by 1 percentage point, it will bring trillion-level new benefits. Counting with your fingers, where to find such a trillion-level "increment" in the winter.


The supply chain innovation mainly promoted by the Ministry of Commerce is being comprehensively promoted in 55 pilot cities across the country. Before the State Council executive meeting, the list of 266 national supply chain innovation and application pilot companies was announced.


The policy vane indicates that China's manufacturing industry will go deeper into the deeper waters. Now it is necessary to consider the overall situation from the perspective of the supply chain. All nodes in the entire supply chain must participate in the overall competition in order to obtain the overall competitive advantage. The fragmented industry of social logistics must be highly centralized! If it is not highly centralized, the driving force will not be strong. It is necessary to take the lead in elder brothers to integrate resources, and to achieve a high degree of centralization and scale to reduce logistics costs.


Among the thousands of troops, who can surpass the opponent to seize this opportunity?


Rookie, JD.com, SF ... The giants with over 100 billion market value / valuation are too storytelling. Mining A-shares that have long-term investment value, Chuanhua Zhilian has attracted much attention recently. So, do you understand the story of Chuanhua Zhilian? Today, let's take a look at Chuanhua Zhilian, which has been involved in social logistics since 2000. How can a company with manufacturing genes fight this big battle?

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Three things in 18 years


Chuanhua Zhilian's strategy is expressed by the simple “logistics +”:


Logistics + Internet + Finance.


The logic of the industry is clear: relying on the huge base of the offline highway port logistics center, the supply chain is like blood, stringing upstream and downstream industries, stringing business flow, logistics, capital flow, and information flow to form control.


How powerful is this control? In a detail, Chuanhua Pay was officially approved for a third-party payment license last year, and by the end of 2017, payment traffic had reached 178.6 billion.


This is a huge operating system and a big ecology of social cooperation. How many resources can Chuanhua mobilize? It is because it has done three things in these 18 years.


First, build a highway port "base" in China's transportation hub cities.


As of the end of June 2018, highway ports nationwide deployed 150 projects, covering 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. Covering most of the hub cities, the provincial capitals bear the brunt, and also accelerate the construction of upgraded highway ports in cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an and Zhengzhou.


If it stops there, Chuanhua is just a “logistics realtor” who collects rent. Even if the country's largest highway and port base is built, relying solely on the effect of scale, a body without a "soul" cannot build user loyalty, and of course it cannot win the winner.


Chuanhua did the second thing, built a platform and network, established a network synergy through an intelligent system, and equipped Chuanhua logistics with a "smart brain."


How does this brain work?


This is a chemical manufacturing company in Zhejiang with annual sales of 2.8 billion yuan. It has more than 2,000 suppliers connected upstream and serves more than 5,000 customers downstream. It has an annual order of 180,000. Eleven logistics carriers dispatch more than 1,500 vehicles to provide transportation. service. Sales of three computers on the back office desk, one using the ERP system to dock and ship; one to issue logistics information to logistics companies; and a car networking system to monitor the company's cars with the outside world.


This is a typical island and broken chain-ERP, warehousing, transportation, finance and other systems within the company are independent; procurement, production, and sales logistics operate independently; it is not enough to have a warehouse for finished products and a warehouse for raw materials afterwards. Surrounding rented warehouses ensure response speed.


The gross profit in the logistics field is only 8% -12%. If the efficiency is increased by 10%, it will be a qualitative leap for manufacturing and logistics companies. After accessing the transmission network, one person can complete the task with three computers and one system can solve it. When ERP comes out, the transport side knows what car to send to pick up the goods, how many cars need to be sent, how many people need to load and unload. Order execution time has been reduced from 17 hours to 13 hours, and vehicle queue time has been reduced from 3 hours to 0.6 hours. "Go Liutian Eye" tracks the flow of goods and raw materials in the production, supply and marketing system throughout the process, and is connected with drivers, vehicles, warehousing, and cargo track management. Finally, all costs were paid through the payment system, which reduced the settlement processing from 9 working days to 3 days, and the payment cost decreased by 50%.


The huge cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the settlement and payment process indicates that there are huge pain points in the real scene. Data show that at present, there are 800,000 special-line LTL logistics companies in China, 70% of which have loan collection services, and as much as 1 trillion yuan of funds are held in the accounts of special-line logistics companies for a long time. The freight of traditional logistics companies has an accounting period of 45 days to 3 months, and the flat fee advancement has a trillion yuan of financing needs each year, but less than 5% of this demand is met through bank loans.


This is the third thing that Chuanhua Logistics does-connecting the payment system to Chuanhua Network to provide customers with a package of supply chain financial services.


Chuanhua Payment has obtained full licenses for payment, factoring, lease financing, insurance brokering, etc. The take-off "runway" has been paved, and "Tianyan" has also been opened-it can guide the business status of business enterprises through the logistics system.


On top of these three major infrastructures, Chuanhua has built six platforms of logistics supply chain, finance, intelligent manufacturing services, procurement information inquiry, and capacity dispatching to carry out modular operations.

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Driving force and moat


A logistics operating system that covers more than 300 cities across the country and spans seven economic belts. How big is the flow of business, people, information, and capital that it drives--


As of the end of 2017, there were 175,000 logistics service companies, dispatching nearly 100,000 vehicles / day, 2.11 million member vehicles, and 210,000 passengers / day.


Driven by this operating system, the chemical reaction after the "channel + hub + network" superposition is amazing-the average delivery time of trucks has been reduced to 9 hours, and the overall logistics cost of enterprises has been reduced by more than 40%.


The most important thing is that once the value depression is formed, the ecology can evolve by itself-


Suzhou Shidetang entered the Suzhou Highway Port City Logistics Center for three years, and has grown from a small three-party agency to a NEEQ listed company. In 2015, its turnover was 128 million yuan, and its net profit increased by 240.73%.


Chengdu Highway Port has not only created the "most profitable gas station in the country" with an average daily refueling of 2,000 vehicles. It has not only integrated logistics companies to save thousands of acres of land locally. This huge hub that gathers more than 85% of the supply information in the southwest has the potential to help the southwest Linking the "Belt and Road" route to the south and opening the Kunman Channel in Southeast Asia, the western region has changed from an open end to a frontier position.


When technology, products, and resources tend to be shared, is there a moat that is wider and deeper than the underlying infrastructure that builds a strong driving force?

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Chuanhua's "million-thousandth" big leap: Productive service industry may become value depression in 2019


In 2019, Chuanhua Zhilian set its goal to serve millions of manufacturing enterprises. Chen Jian, CEO of Chuanhua Zhilian, predicts that China's productive service industry will be a value depression in 2019, and it is time for Chuanhua's large-scale service manufacturing industry.


Seizing the key opportunity of supply chain transformation, Chuanhua will rise to the sky, seize the second growth curve, and truly become a user-driven enterprise.


However, this growth curve has to break the barriers of thinking in the manufacturing industry. Zhang Zhonghua, general manager of Zhilian Huitong, a subsidiary of Chuanzhizhilian, and a person in charge of a battery company had exchanges.


This company specializes in the production of lithium batteries for electric vehicles, with a annual freight volume of 3 million tons, and 2000 dedicated lines to serve it.


The boss said, I have such a large freight volume, so many customers, why do I not do logistics myself?


Zhang Zhonghua said, let alone let's say that logistics only has a 3% profit. You are the one who produces the battery, you do it, you are the logistics company.

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This is a big habit of China's manufacturing industry. It is used to doing everything by itself; the lack of awareness of cooperation and collaboration, the more small and medium-sized enterprises, the more fear they have about sharing data and interconnecting.


In the economic winter, even if you are unwilling, you will be forced to this step. At this time, the success rate of transformation is not so high, but if you do not take this step, you will only die faster.


Ansteel unifies the centralized purchasing and distribution to form a centralized mining platform. For Angang to use the most advantageous price and the most guaranteed quality, it must be open to allow other companies outside Anshan to make money on this platform.


The clothing industry's past production cycle was 5 to 8 months. Now you watch a show and you can buy new models in stores in a few weeks. If the social division of labor is not extremely detailed, such a response speed cannot be achieved.


In the most competitive mobile phone industry, mobile phone manufacturers have reached the point of relying on black technology to win users for phone replacements. This has forced well-known supply chain manufacturers such as Ophee Technology to rely on multiple equity pledges to accelerate research and development and acquisitions, keeping up with the pace of technological iteration If you fail to keep up, you may lose hundreds of millions of orders and get into trouble.


Who can stop the trend?


The policy tuyere is boosting the trend, and everyone is watching the lucky ones on the tuyere. However, companies that have risen only by chance are fast-moving and fast-moving, and everything is a footnote accumulated over the past 18 years.

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Three thresholds, the Industrial Internet does not believe in cornering overtaking


In a 12 trillion market, how many Internet giants are eyeing it.


Let's look at the capital weathervane first. Over the years, these names have been extremely active in the logistics field. Sequoia Capital has invested in 21 companies; ProLogis has invested in 36 logistics companies in 3 years; 20 Alibaba companies, 15 rookie networks; 14 Tencent companies, including 6 unicorns. Ali's investment in logistics technology is almost equal to that of ProLogis.


In 2018, SF spent 5.5 billion to purchase DHL's supply chain business in the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; JD Logistics ambitious to build a global intelligent supply chain basic network. The giants from the Internet have thoroughly penetrated the express delivery industry. When it intervened in social logistics, it was found that if they wanted to rewrite the pattern, they could not obtain the right to speak and set prices only by cutting in technology. At this time, it was too late to do what Chuanhua did. ?


The layout of highway ports offline involves land, indicators, planning, and demolition, which is difficult and costly, and there are only a few node resources suitable for logistics ports. The “logistics hub” is destined for a high threshold. After Chuanhua swept, can the latecomers still use the money to burn a huge base?


The second high threshold is, do you understand manufacturing? Do you understand the scene? How to understand the supply chain from a manufacturing perspective?


Why is the Industrial Internet not easy to do? A large number of large and medium-sized enterprises face such problems, but they cannot find their own needs. You must help them discover from its perspective, use a complete supply chain thinking, and use the manufacturing heritage to help it analyze.


Chuanhua, a company that grew up by selling barrels of auxiliaries, fights for more than one year to become a unicorn quickly, goes to the US in less than three years, and closes the market value of Jingdong's Internet company. It's different.


When the Internet giants implemented the "Plan B" together, Chuanhua suddenly found himself enjoying a huge home court advantage.


Chuanhua started its chemical industry with tens of thousands of varieties and thousands of series. This complex manufacturing, in the supply chain, what is the fastest speed to meet user needs, no more understand the manufacturing pain points than Chuanhua.

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You have to serve a complex Chinese supply chain system. Simple onlineization cannot solve the problem at all, because it does not simply solve the problem of information symmetry. Internet technology is helpful for improving efficiency, but it is impossible to rely on it to solve the problems of the entire industry chain.


Everyone wants to be Uber in the Chinese freight market. Big data can change traditional logistics. In its heyday, there were two or three hundred companies in the whole market that made car-cargo matching apps.


The reality is that logistics is too far away from big data, and even collection is a problem. The body does not exist, which body does the soul have?


The highest threshold is here. The ability built by Chuanhua in the supply chain is not matured by capital or designed at the top level. It is naturally cultivated and formed step by step based on the company's own scene and market needs over the past 18 years. This is what the Prime Minister specifically emphasized on the construction of the logistics hub at the executive meeting of the State Council-"From the perspective of market cultivation, we must rely more on the role of the market itself and cannot be framed by artificial planning and layout."


The 18-year cultivation period is itself a process of trial and error, survival of the fittest, and what is left is a healthy, energetic, and most efficient body. This is a process of natural evolution.


Want to overtake a curve? This is not the logic of the Industrial Internet.


The logistics industry also experienced a barbarous growth stage in 2003 and 2004—profiteering, extensive, and the right to operate a dedicated line for millions. Chuanhua's involvement in logistics is just like Ali's involvement in cloud computing. Huawei's enterprise intelligence was initially designed to solve huge pain points.


In April this year, Chuanhua Zhilian established the largest super logistics distribution center in Asia in Xinzheng. Behind these great efforts of Dingding Central Plains is Chuanhua's painstaking effort to lay out a big game since 2015-to fully connect all Chuanhua's urban logistics centers nationwide. In the first half of this year, this goal was achieved.


Only entrepreneurs who believe in and practice what is the most essential thing about an enterprise will spend 18 years polishing a social infrastructure that creates inclusive value for society but requires long-term returns.

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The rules of the game have changed. Who do you bet?


In fact, the rules of the game have changed.


Channels + hubs + networks are not superimposed , but focus on the elements of technology, quality, and cost. They are highly collaborative, highly integrated, and highly shared. It will take the lead to lead and will survive the fittest, but the winner-take-all Matthew effect will change Benefit sharing and win-win cooperation.


Chuanhua Zhilian has cooperation with Cainiao, Santong Yida, and SF; Chuanhua does not need to study any algorithms, cooperate with Hikvision for face recognition and vehicle recognition; cooperate with telecommunications, and borrow its IoT resources .


In this 18-year evolution, Chuanhua Zhilian, which has the manufacturing gene, has a very clear definition of the boundary between "do and not do". Chen Jian, CEO of Chuanhua Zhilian said:


The core of Chuanhuanet is to build the basic platform, and other platforms have a synergistic relationship with Chuanhua . In the platformization construction, which is Chuanhua's own must do, which is to be done with partners, and which is to link to the outside The platform is not what I want to do, it must be clearly defined.


Who can lead the industry? Zhang Zhonghua believes that there are three necessary conditions--


First, the ability to understand the supply chain, the depth of diagnosis and consulting services, are the details.


Second, this industry chain is very long, and it is impossible for a family to take all. It must have the ability to integrate physical warehousing and logistics and the ability to integrate socialized resources.


Third, it is necessary to understand the supply chain, to be able to come up with a strong solution, and to have system customization development capabilities close to the needs of the enterprise.


Anyway, in the next few years, we will see the trend of this battle. You can buy stocks as chips and bet on your own judgment.


(Picture from the network)


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